The first round of the knock-out stage has come to an end and boy were there some surprises.
France found their fighting spirit again and the Japanese team were able to leave the tournament with their heads held high.
(Which unfortunately cannot be said for the Spanish players …)
And even though we might say that most of the quarter finalists deserved to go to the next round, we could ask the question (after seeing the England – Colombia game) if it wouldn’t be wiser to replace England by Japan :), based on their latest performance.
However, the show must go on.
If we respect the logic, then England & Croatia should be the victors in their brackets, but then again that’s also what was expected from the Spanish national team and look how that worked out for them.
Russia should definitely be handled with care as they have grown throughout the tournament and the host countries are always tricky in front of the home crowd.
For Brazil against Belgium, we’ve to say that Brazil will have the highest chance to win, but the Belgians will not go down without a fight as this might be the last chance for their golden generation.
And last but not least, Uruguay – France, which is a very tricky one to predict. Both teams are very well-matched, but we might want to give France the advantage, especially with Cavani’s injury.
In the next image you can see the updated probabilities of winning the tournament.
Brazil and England are still in pole position to play the finals.
But an interesting question to ask is, if they would play the finals, who would win?
On one side, Brazil will have the advantage, because at that point they will have the highest rating (because their opponents in the brackets were stronger).
But it can also mean that they are just that little bit extra tired, because they had to work harder to make it to the finals.
See you all on the next update !