The first round of the group phase has just ended, so an ideal moment to review our predictions.
9 out of 16 predictions were correct.
3 games ended in a draw.
4 games were predicted incorrectly.
The goal is to predict the outcome of the games, based on simulations and modelling, but there is always the human factor that can completely change the course of the game. This is of course the challenge of prediction !
Portugal – Spain: 3-3 ( personal error from De Gea and a penalty kick )
Morroco – Iran: 0-1 (own goal in the 90th minute)
Colombia – Japan: 1-2 (red card in the 3rd minute and a penalty)
Poland – Senegal: 1-2 (own goal and given a goal away)
Mexico and Iceland showed us once again that heart, passion and enthusiasm in combination with their talent, can offer any ‘smaller’ country the right tools to fight their Goliath.
As a team, we can’t complain about this result. Football just happens to be a fickle sport where luck can play a key factor.
For the next round, we’ve updated each player with the information of the first round games.
If the team won the game & the player was on the pitch, he gained points. otherwise he lost some.
We still choose to make use of the last 5 team line-ups to predict the next games. This means that we’re using 1 line-up of the world-cup & 4 line-ups of the qualification.
Why 5 you might say?
We want to take into account the different possible line-ups, to adapt to line-up changes to accommodate the opponents because every nation has a selection of 23 players and the coaches will have experimented more during the last world cup qualifiers, due to being qualified or having injuries in the selection.
But when we reach the knock-out phase of the tournament, we’ll use only the line-ups of games in the group stage (–> world-cup games only). As in a tournament, the saying ‘Never change a winning team’ is usually applied to the team line-ups.